Democrats have never held a majority on the McLean County Board. It's a 10-10 split now, and they'd like to get over the edge to a majority. Republicans, of course, really don't want that to happen.
All 20 board members in 10 districts are up for election this year because it is the year following a redistricting. Both major parties are fielding more candidates for the county board than they did after the last redistricting 10 years ago. Democrats have 15 office-seekers. Republicans have 19 on the ballot.
“I definitely think we are nudging back into having a majority control of the board,” said Connie Beard, the Republican Party chair in McLean County. “It's kind of a wide-open season. And in many ways, I don't know that anybody can have a definite handle on what's going to happen because there's energy flowing on both sides. But there is a lot of energy flowing on the Republican side.”
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Nationwide, party activism and sentiment is not necessarily a guide to how things will go in the state. County Democratic Party chair Patrick Cortesi said McLean County also may be different.
“I think McLean County has a history, not just in politics, but business and economics, of being a little insulated from national trends for whatever reason. Perhaps it's the college campuses or the businesses that we have here. So, I don't think any national trends will occur here in McLean County to the extremes that they may in other areas of the country,” said Cortesi.
Cortesi said past election results show there is one solid Republican county board district, three more that lean Republican, three solid Democratic districts, two that lean Democratic, and one total toss-up in District 5, which covers north and central Normal:
- CB 1 - Solid R
- CB 2 - Lean R
- CB 3 - Lean R
- CB 4 - Solid D
- CB 5 - Toss up
- CB 6 - Solid D
- CB 7 - Lean D
- CB 8 - Solid D
- CB 9 - Lean D
- CB 10 - Lean R
A solid district means it went for or against President Biden by double digits. County Board District 4 on the west side of Normal, for instance, went for Biden with 62% of the vote two years ago and for Gov. JB Pritzker with 60% four years ago. For Democrats, a leaning district is one that went for Biden or Pritzker by low single digits.
Biden's results may not be a firm guide to this year's balloting. Traditionally, the party of a sitting president doesn't do so well in the midterm election. The party in power has lost congressional seats in all but three such elections in the nation's history. Nationwide, most people agree the GOP had momentum through the spring. Then the Supreme Court overturned the abortion precedent Roe v. Wade and energized Democrats. Some election successes over the summer also lifted Democratic enthusiasm. Of late, Republicans have regained some mojo.
“When the balance of power is so tight between the parties, that's huge," said Illinois Wesleyan University political scientist Tari Renner.
Cortesi acknowledged party demographics work against the Democrats in some areas of the county, but he hopes his party will "hold serve" with incumbents and pick up one or two board seats elsewhere.
“The candidates our opposition has put up on their ballot, top to bottom, (I) think there's some extreme candidates on that ballot. And I think there are going to be some folks that maybe normally like to vote red that aren't going to do that this year,” said Cortesi.
One of the areas in which Cortesi said he hopes some Republicans will switch to the blue side is District 3 south and west of Bloomington. Cortesi based that on his assertion GOP candidates there aren't working very hard, and the Democratic candidate is putting in the time knocking on doors.
Connie Beard disputed that alleged lack of effort and said the entire party is involved.
“We've had special fundraisers to allow us to do a series of mailers. We've done one. We've got more coming. We've got billboard ads going. We upped our number of precinct committeeman that are really active,” said Beard.
Ticket splitting
Ticket splitting is a habit that takes place at the margins that can swing a tight contest one way or another. A rise in party polarization means there's less ticket splitting than there used to be. Renner said ticket splitting from the presidential to the congressional level used to be about 15% of the vote if one candidate was weak, because they were underfunded or inexperienced.
Now, the difference between the top of the ticket who wins and the minus for a low-qualified down ballot congressional candidate is more likely to be about 2%. Renner said data from two years ago showed almost all congressional districts had less than 5% tickets splitters, and some had just tenths of a percent.
“So even if it's let's say a county board district in McLean County that Biden or Pritzker wins by seven or eight points, it's going to be very unlikely that a Republican is going to win in that particular district because that would require us to have lots of people to vote for Pritzker and then vote for a Republican down the ballot,” said Renner.
The reverse also is true, which could safeguard District 3 and the other red, rural strongholds for the GOP.
Another factor in assessing how Democrats and Republicans will do in County Board races is the performance at the top of the ticket by candidates for governor and Senate. This is called the coattail effect. Renner said a strong candidate at the top of the ticket can produce higher turnout for the party that has such an advantage.
“If you have a very strong candidate or a very weak candidate, it definitely has a greater effect today than it would have 20 or 30 or 40 years ago. There is less ticket splitting,” said Renner.
Most public surveys have Gov. JB Pritzker well ahead of Republican challenger Darren Bailey. That could help Democratic County Board candidates who need more turnout of the base. The top of the ticket can help in other ways as well.
“I do think the fact that he's running pretty well, by all appearances, helps us in that we don't have to spend as many resources on his campaign. We may fund a different candidate,” said Cortesi.
Some Republicans have publicly scoffed at polls showing Pritzker with a double-digit lead over Bailey
“I think that the conviction of Republican voters in McLean County to help Darren Bailey is a commitment that's been made. So, I don't think the media releases that are trying to come out now to discourage that are going to have an impact. If anything, it's going to encourage the resolve to get out and vote,” said Beard.
Referendum impacts
Democrats this year also have put the Workers’ Rights Amendment to the state constitution on the ballot. It's supposed to grow the party base that shows up to vote. Renner said it's hard to quantify the effect of such ballot initiatives. It depends on the nature of the ballot question, but he said it's a positive non-zero number.
“Back in 2004, that was one of the things that was done in many states. The Bush campaign wanted gay marriage on the ballot in some of the swing states so that they could have their base show up so that they'd be more likely to defeat John Kerry,” said Renner.
The Kansas abortion referendum this year, for instance, would have helped Democrats more if it had been held during the general election rather than the primary, said Renner.
He said there's one more quirk about this year's election that could affect McLean County Board races. It happens only in redistricting years like this one. All seats are up at the same time. There are up to four major party candidates on the same ballot for two seats.
“In the last two cycles, the Democrats won all but one race even in conservative Republican areas, where they had one candidate and the Republicans had two in which Democrats didn't nominate two candidates. Democrats would tend to vote, and Republicans would tend sometimes to split their ballot or vote for just one of the Republicans,” said Renner.
He said that could help at least one Democrat, Elizabeth Johnston, in the toss-up District 5 in north and central Normal. Renner cautioned rural areas have become so much more Republican he doesn't know whether the 2002 and 2012 Democratic seat gains outside Bloomington-Normal can be replicated.
In summary, all kinds of things matter: the dynamics of enthusiasm, turnout at the top of the ticket, and money.
Democrats are spending a lot of money. They have become well funded through party building contributions from above. Republicans are more active this year. The effort each candidate puts in knocking on doors also is key. Renner said these things matter within the margins, but they're not going to turn a race that isn't close on paper into a competitive one. That is after all, why we hold elections.
