The extent to which Donald Trump remains the front runner depends on how long John Kasich stays in the GOP Presidential primary race. That's according to ISU Political Scientist Kerri Milita speaking on GLT's Sound Ideas.
"Some Jeb Bush supporters will go to John Kasich," says Milita, noting the former Florida governor has suspended his campaign. "Most of them will go to Marco Rubio. Virtually none will go to (Texas Senator) Ted Cruz or Trump."
Milita says never before has the Republican establishment field been so fractured. She says if all the establishment votes were combined, Trump would not be leading. And she says with the departure of Bush after the South Carolina primary, that splintering is closer to ending. She says this is an anti-establishment year and not an election cycle to be running on the Bush family legacy.
Milita says in spite of Trump's inflammatory rhetoric, his refusal to define how he proposes to govern, if elected, is standard fare. "The strategy of the ambiguity is the dominant campaign tactic that a candidate wants to say. Every campaign manager would want to say, 'let him say not one word about his principles or his creed; say nothing, promise nothing.' That's the safest bet. That way you can never be called a 'flip-flopper' and most voters aren't sophisticated enough to know the difference."
Coming up to 'Super Tuesday' primaries, Milita says, Cruz will carry the evangelical vote in some southern states to remain viable.
On the Democratic Party side, Milita says Hillary Clinton has a gigantic advantage over Bernie Sanders in upcoming primaries in the south. More problematic for Democrats later this year, Milita says is an enthusiasm gap between Democrat and Republican primary voters.
