RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil — The final stage of the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro is underway in Brazil — a historic first, with the ex-leader accused of trying to overturn democracy after his 2022 election defeat.
Bolsonaro, 70, is accused of leading a sweeping criminal conspiracy to stay in power after his defeat to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Brazil, Latin America's largest country, returned to democracy just over 40 years ago after a brutal military dictatorship.
Prosecutors have highlighted the role of military commanders who refused to back Bolsonaro's alleged plot, helping preserve constitutional order. Meanwhile, Brazil's Supreme Court is under intense scrutiny for its expanded powers and aggressive handling of the case.
Adding to the drama, former U.S. President Donald Trump — encouraged by Bolsonaro's son, now living in the U.S. — has publicly condemned the trial. Trump called it a "witch hunt," slapped 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports, and imposed sanctions on several of the Supreme Court justices overseeing the case.
What are the charges?
Bolsonaro is facing five charges brought by prosecutors and being heard by a panel of five justices of Brazil's Supreme Federal Court. The charges include attempting to violently end the democratic rule of law, plotting a coup, and forming part of an armed criminal organization. There are two other charges related to the damage of property and historical items during the riot of January 8th, 2023 by Bolsonaro's supporters on government buildings in the capital of Brasília.
Brazil's Attorney General has been building a case against Bolsonaro for over 18 months drawing on evidence from more than half a dozen investigations. Prosecutors allege that Bolsonaro not only urged supporters to riot the capital but also led a group of at least four officials to stay in office. The alleged plot included plans to assassinate key political rivals, including current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is now overseeing the case.
Also on trial are seven of Bolsonaro's closest allies, including his former vice-presidential running mate, defense minister, and justice minister. His top former aide, Lt. Col. Mauro Cid, has entered a plea bargain with the prosecution and his lawyers will be the first to speak, followed by the rest listed in alphabetical order according to their clients' names.
What is the evidence?
Prosecutors say they have volumes of evidence implicating Bolsonaro and the other defendants through seized documents, emails, social media communications and cell phone calls.
Brazil's top prosecutor Paulo Gonet argues that Bolsonaro was not just a passive observer but that the former president made "a conscious effort to create an environment conducive to violence and a coup". And he noted that the criminal organization headed by Bolsonaro left an extensive trail of documents through, "recordings, handwritten notes, digital files, spreadsheets and exchanges of electronic messages."
Some of the most damaging evidence, prosecutors say, comes from Bolsonaro's trusted former aide, Mauro Cid, who entered into a plea bargain with the Attorney General for a lighter sentence in exchange for his testimony.
Cid told investigators that Bolsonaro personally edited a draft decree — widely referred to as a "coup draft" — that laid out plans to overturn the 2022 election results. The document called for the arrest of the head of the Senate and 3 Supreme Court justices in order to create a commission calling for new elections. Bolsonaro allegedly edited the document so only Alexandre de Moraes - the justice currently overseeing the trial - would be arrested.
Moraes has become a lightning rod for many on the right in Brazil and abroad who accuse him of judicial overreach in not only Bolsonaro's case but in others involving the dissemination of fake news, where he has ordered the removal of social media accounts. He even engaged in a high profile standoff with Elon Musk over what he said was disinformation being spread on the billionaire's social media platform X.
What does Bolsonaro say?
Bolsonaro has long denied all the charges and disputes claims he actively participated in a coup. He repeatedly points out that he was not even in Brazil at the time his supporters rioted the capital. He left the country before President Lula was sworn into office and was living in Florida at the time.
He also denies that he had any connection to an assassination plot. While he does say he had seen the "coup draft" document, he denies authoring or altering it.
He says any discussions about staying in power that he might have participated in were always just that, discussions, and always about how he could remain president legally and through constitutional avenues. He insists that he did not try to enlist the military's support for a coup.
Lawyers for Bolsonaro also claim that Supreme Court Justice Moraes is biased against the former president as is the federal police. They also say that the plea agreement with the ex-leader's trusted aide is untrustworthy and should be annulled.
Bolsonaro's son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, a Brazilian congressman, has urged U.S. officials to intervene on behalf of his father. Now based in the U.S. he has been seeking support from conservative allies, including many in Trump's MAGA movement to intervene on his father's behalf. In an interview with NPR Eduardo Bolsonaro claimed his father is a victim of judicial overreach that has turned Brazil into an authoritarian dictatorship. "The only way that we have to win this war against political persecution, censorship is with the help of the Trump administration" he said.
Why is Trump involved?
Bolsonaro's presidential tenure (2019 - 2022) overlapped with Trump's first term in office and the two conservatives enjoyed good relations. Trump has stated that he relates to the "political persecution" Bolsonaro is now suffering by the leftist Lula administration.
In July Trump sent a letter to Brazilian authorities referencing the case against Bolsonaro as justification for imposing steep 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports to the U.S. — one of the highest rates ever levied against a country. On social media, Trump has called the prosecution a "witch hunt" against a "good man" and vowed to watch the trial closely.
Then in a dramatic move the U.S. Treasury Department imposed one of the most severe sanctions on Justice Moraes, under the Magnitsky Act, a measure usually used to punish foreign dictators and war criminals. The State Department then revoked the U.S. visas of multiple judges on Brazil's high court. The ban also extends to their immediate family members. Only 3 of the 11 justices were spared the visa revocation.
What happens if Bolsonaro is found guilty?
If convicted of the five charges, Bolsonaro and the seven other defendants are facing decades in prison. The most serious charges—plotting a coup and attempting to violently abolish democratic rule — each carry sentences of up to 12 years. The lesser charges of property and historical heritage damages carry as little as 6 months to 3 years in prison. All totaled, Bolsonaro could be condemned to more than 40 years in prison.
If convicted, Bolsonaro and the other defendants can appeal and have their case heard before the full Supreme Court. He is already barred from running in next year's presidential election, on previous charges of spreading disinformation.
But Bolsonaro still holds substantial political backing in the country. There is talk about one of his sons or even his wife running in his place. And there is much hope from supporters that a strong win for an anointed successor next year could issue a pardon for him and seek to impeach Supreme Court justices involved in the case, especially the lead jurist Alexandre de Moraes.
What's next?
The trial begins Tuesday, with proceedings expected to last until Sept. 12. The world — and especially the U.S. — will be watching closely. A guilty verdict could trigger further U.S. sanctions and deepen international tensions. Regardless of the outcome, the trial has the potential to reshape Brazil's political landscape and send shockwaves well beyond Latin America.
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