U.S. pork producers could be profitable this year as they dig out from record losses in 2023, industry experts predict. But trade remains a wild card.
“Trade is vitally important for our industry. We export about 25% of our production,” said Maria C. Zieba, vice president of government affairs with the National Pork Producers Council.
Zieba spoke on a policy panel in Des Moines, Iowa, at the 2025 World Pork Expo, a two-day event that draws in an estimated 10,000 people.
U.S. pork exports reached record highs last year, exceeding 3 million metric tons worth $8.6 billion. After Mexico, China was the second largest importer of U.S. pork by volume. Along with muscle cuts, like pork belly, loin and shoulder, China imported over half of the U.S. pork sector’s variety meats – the skin, feet, tail, head and organs – for food, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics.
Trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalated in April and cooled in May with a 90-day rollback on tariffs. The National Pork Producers Council said the temporary agreement dropped the tariff rate on U.S. pork from 172% to 57%.
“Whenever we have a trade disruption, that's certainly an impact on domestic producers," Zieba said. "But luckily with this de-escalation over the last few weeks or so, we’ve continued to hear from our trade exporters that we’re exporting our product."
Still, the National Pork Producers Council is pushing for more trade with other countries, specifically Vietnam.
“We see this as a huge opportunity for our U.S. pork exports,” Zieba said, “not only because there’s a hundred million people in Vietnam whose number one protein consumption is pork, but also because as we look at diversifying away from certain markets, Vietnam has that opportunity that is very unique.”
Similar to China, demand for muscle cuts and variety meats is strong in Vietnam, she explained.
Duane Stateler, National Pork Producers Council president and an Ohio pork producer, said farmers are familiar with uncertainty. But the ever-changing trade landscape is “just one more thing now that we’re juggling,” he said.
Recovering industry
Presenters during an economic update at the World Pork Expo said pork producers are still recovering from losses in 2023.
“[It] will go down as the worst year in pork producer profitability to date at over $30 per head loss,” said Lee Schulz, the chief economist of the livestock division with Ever.Ag, a Texas-based supply chain and agribusiness software company.
Low prices for hogs and higher costs for labor, energy and insurance contributed to the downturn. Producers also had to navigate elevated interest rates and inflation. Last year, producers broke even, Schulz said.
While producers’ costs are still about 32% higher than they were in 2020, Schulz pointed to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to predict a $15 per head profit later this year.
“If this proves true, this will be the quickest turnaround in pork producer profitability ever,” Schulz said. “I pause because… it says much more about how bad the situation was in 2023 and 2024 … than it says about 2025.”
As for trade, Schulz said China still represents the highest-value market for variety meats, and no other country can absorb the same volume. When tariffs spiked this spring, the U.S. stored more variety meats in warehouse refrigerators and freezers.
But Schulz said major exporters were already looking for new markets before the trade war, in part because China had increased its own domestic production.
“China is going to remain a major importer of pork,” Schulz said. “Now, how much of that market share that we have has changed over time, even [in] the last several years. But these markets don’t operate in a vacuum. If our competitors are sending more product to China, that means they are sending less product to another market.”
He said this could open new opportunities for U.S. pork, but shifting supply chains can’t happen over night.
To encourage more people in the U.S. to eat pork, the National Pork Board launched a campaign earlier this year called “Taste What Pork Can Do.” It emphasizes flavor, global recipes and convenient cooking techniques.
This story was produced in partnership with Harvest Public Media, a collaboration of public media newsrooms in the Midwest and Great Plains. It reports on food systems, agriculture and rural issues.
