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Kaiyu Guan was in Singapore when his phone rang. The screen read “Spam Risk.” He blocked the number.
He didn’t know the MacArthur Foundation was on the line.
“I’m pretty sure they called multiple times,” said Guan, 41, an environmental scientist and professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
The foundation came calling because of Guan’s groundbreaking work combining satellite observations, process models and machine learning to build resilient agricultural systems. The MacArthur Foundation eventually emailed him, requesting help with a “proposal.”
When they finally connected days later, he learned he’d won the prestigious MacArthur Fellowship. The so-called “genius grant” is awarded to 20 to 30 individuals each year, and it comes with a no-strings-attached prize of $800,000.
The criteria for the award is simple: It’s given to “extraordinarily creative individuals who demonstrate the ability to impact society in significant and beneficial ways through their pioneering work or the rigor of their contributions,” according to the MacArthur Foundation website. Previous winners span disciplines from the arts to physics. They include Cormac McCarthy, Lin-Manuel Miranda and Octavia Butler, among others.
“It was a big, huge surprise that took me a good amount of time to digest,” Guan said. “I don’t think I’m a genius. I am working pretty hard, and I do have some good ideas, but you know, I’m very humbled.”
There are more than 8 billion people living on Earth today, and they all have to eat. Guan’s work is about making sure the world’s food systems are resilient enough to keep pace with ever-growing demand. His research brings together satellite observations, artificial intelligence and modeling to help farmers take advantage of sustainable and regenerative practices.
Growing up in China, Guan’s grandfather dreamed he’d become an astronaut and even chose his name, which means “to explore the universe.” Guan took it to heart. Although he doesn’t rule out the possibility of one day boarding a spacecraft, his work allows him to see our world from space every day. He has scoured images taken from orbit of almost every farmed acre in the U.S.
“I already have an eye on the satellites that NASA launched,” Guan said. “I can see from space.”
Guan developed a fully automated method to fuse satellite data from several sources to generate daily images of 90% of U.S. croplands going back to 2000. His pathbreaking work has given farmers a new view of their crops over time, providing information about how green their fields are, photosynthesis rates, nitrogen levels and yield predictions.
“I think it still provides an unprecedented way to see every corner of the crop field at continental scale,” Guan said. “That really is revolutionary for agriculture.”
But the technical challenges were massive.
Some satellites offer high-resolution images but take more than two weeks to return to the same spot for another observation. Other satellites have a much faster revisit period and can capture pictures daily, but those images are lower in resolution.
Unpredictable cloud cover only compounds the problem. Guan’s team developed an algorithm to combine the satellite data using U of I’s now decommissioned Blue Waters supercomputer.
Some of Guan’s recent work has revolved around making regenerative agriculture easier to approach than ever before. Industrial agriculture relies on heavily tilling and plowing farm land, effectively turning over soil and releasing stored carbon into the atmosphere. Guan has collaborated on developing machine learning tools to help farmers take better stock of carbon released from their fields and perhaps how to better manage it .
His ambitions also stretch far beyond the Midwest which he calls home: “Monitor, model and optimize every farm on this planet,” Guan said.
Agriculture contributes more than 12% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Guan’s hope is that feeding billions doesn’t have to come with such a heavy toll on the environment and atmosphere.
Guan, bashful from his office, is grateful for the recognition this award comes with. But more than anything, he’s excited about bringing more attention to the world’s food systems.
“I don’t want to make this about me,” Guan said. “I see this is a great opportunity for agriculture.”