STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Iran's new supreme leader issued his first statement, or at least a statement issued in his name. The leader is Mojtaba Khamenei, and he says that Iran will continue to keep the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway, closed. He also said that Iran will press ahead with attacks on U.S. military targets in the region. NPR National Security correspondent Greg Myre joins us once again.
Greg, good morning.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Steve.
INSKEEP: What do you learn from this statement?
MYRE: Well, first, as you noted, we didn't see the new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and we didn't hear his voice. This statement was read on Iranian state media in his name. So one of the key questions is, what condition is he in? He was believed to be injured in the Israeli airstrike on Day 1 of the war that killed the former Supreme Leader, his father, as well as his mother, his wife and his son.
INSKEEP: Yeah.
MYRE: So it didn't answer this question about his health or where he might be. He's assumed to be in hiding to guard against another possible attack. But the tone of the statement was absolutely hard line and defiant. It said Iran would push ahead with the war on two key fronts - attacks directed at U.S. bases and effectively keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. He also said Iran may open new fronts in the war, but didn't specify.
INSKEEP: Well, when he talks about the strat of Hormuz, he's stating the obvious that there's nothing flowing through the strait, but he's also making it explicit that Iran is happy or willing to damage the global economy in order to build pressure for the war to end.
MYRE: Yeah, that's absolutely right. I mean, Iran will be hurt, as well. They can't export oil or probably won't be able to. And the U.S. has sunk most of Iran's navy, including mine-laying ships. But Iran has other ways to hit these oil tankers and cargo ships. The Strait of Hormuz is very narrow, just 20 miles or so at its narrowest point. And Iranian forces onshore can fire drones or rockets or missiles at ships, and several have been hit in the past couple of days. This going to be an absolutely critical issue as this war plays out.
INSKEEP: Yeah, we see plenty of video and images of ships on fire, smoke above the ships, ships wrecked. What is the effect of all of that?
MYRE: Yeah, Steve. We saw the impact early today. Oil spiked again, it touched $100 a barrel, though it's retreated just a bit. The world consumes a little over 100 million barrels of oil a day and around 20 million of those barrels, or 20%, come through the Strait of Hormuz. And the pressure on the oil price will just keep growing every day. Gregory Brew follows Iran and energy issues at the Eurasia Group. He spoke on a panel hosted by the Cato Institute.
GREGORY BREW: We are currently experiencing what is the largest oil supply disruption in history. Energy prices will remain high. The Iranian strategy of applying pressure to the United States will continue to play out, and President Trump will continue to feel the pressure.
INSKEEP: When he says the largest disruption in history, wow, how long can Iran keep that up?
MYRE: Yeah, perhaps for some time, and Iran's strategy may be to keep the strait closed as long as possible to inflict as much economic pain as possible with the goal of deterring the U.S. and Israel from hitting Iran again in the future. Here's Negar Mortazavi. She's with the Center for International policy in Washington.
NEGAR MORTAZAVI: For Iran, they're essentially playing the long game. The war continues until they achieve a ceasefire or a peace that ensures they don't become the next Lebanon or the next Gaza, where Israel, with the help of the U.S., feel like they can just come in and mow the lawn.
MYRE: And, Steve, you know that phrase, mow the lawn, is how Israel often describes its periodic attacks on Gaza or Lebanon.
INSKEEP: Greg, President Trump launched this war with a lot of talk about Iran's nuclear program. Is the U.S. striking that program?
MYRE: Boy, we're just not hearing anything about that, and the biggest single question is the status of nearly 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium, which is believed to be at a site near the central city of Isfahan, and that material would be absolutely critical in making a bomb if Iran tries to do so.
INSKEEP: NPR's Greg Myre. Thanks for the update.
MYRE: Sure thing, Steve. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
