Those inside the renewable energy sector find themselves at a crossroads as the GOP's massive tax cut and spending bill will sunset tax credits and incentives from the industry. Those groups now face the difficult decision of how to handle environmental projects which are usually years in the making.
The Illinois Environmental Council [IEC] is a nonprofit organization working to make sure environmental and climate communities are heard in public policy and legislative affairs.
IEC published its own analysis of the bill, claiming it would set back environmental progress, jobs and initiatives across Illinois. The organization is worried how the law will affect the wallets and livelihoods of Illinoisans.
“We don’t have a specific breakdown number of everyone that would be impacted, but we know that that’s a large number,” said Senior Policy Manager Cate Caldwell. “We could see as little as thousands or as many as hundreds of thousands. It’s definitely concerning.”
As renewable energy will be less abundant than environmental activists had hoped, Caldwell said residents are likely to see their electricity bills increase substantially. She said IEC expects bills to increase by approximately 21% over the next year for industrial energy bills in Central Illinois, as solar and wind farms become more expensive.
“We’re seeing that it can be as little as $121 increase for energy bills for homeowners, but up to $400 annually and that can be for commercial or industrial energy bills,” she said.
Caldwell is also concerned with job cuts — the jobs that come along with the construction, installation and operation of those renewable energy sites. IEC estimates somewhere between 20,000 and 52,000 jobs that could be lost.
McLean County Board Member Lea Cline said the impact for McLean County will not be known until it is already in effect.
The chair of the board’s land use and transportation committee said the Future Energy Jobs Act and the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act in Illinois protect some renewable energy employment.
“And both of those are focused on ensuring that as renewable energy technology is being increasingly deployed in the state that we are providing for job training and that we are providing for good paying jobs, local jobs, Illinois jobs in the process,” Cline said. “Those things aren’t going to go away.”
Cline said the county could still be more attractive for developers compared to other counties after a recent upgrade to high voltage transmission lines.
Caldwell said the greater concern for IEC is what lies in the future for the environment and the clean energy sector. Those long-term challenges can keep a community from bouncing back.
“Let’s just say … you’re seeing like maybe a $50 increase on your energy bill, then let’s just say by 2030, 2032 you’re seeing almost $100, $200,” Caldwell said. “Then let’s just say you are someone that works in the energy industry … and you’ve been laid off. It’s really hard to recover from that, especially if you don’t have that federal assistance and even at the state level.”
Caldwell said the districts most reliant on the soon-to-be ending tax credits are largely the Republican ones, like those of U.S. Reps Mike Bost, Mary Miller and Darin LaHood, all of whom voted in favor of the bill.
Illinois was previously on track to sustain a 100% clean energy grid by 2050, another objective which IEC said is in jeopardy. Caldwell said it is not out of reach yet. She said legislators can still pass the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act [CRGA].
“I think the main driving point right now is that we can’t put our belief in the federal government that we’re going to be able to be successful with these rollbacks happening, but I think we can hold our state lawmakers accountable to continue that work,” she said. “I think if we actually pass CRGA … I think we’ll still be on track.”
Caldwell said CRGA could be taken up by lawmakers during the upcoming veto session in October. It would strengthen energy efficiency, prioritize clean energy resources and promote transmission improvements to strengthen the power grid.
The reconciliation bill made cuts to agriculture subsidies as well, according to IEC. Caldwell said the cap of payments and eligibility rules changed to favor large scale producers. She said there are caps on how much one producer can receive and income limits on what subsidies they can receive, resulting in agrobusinesses qualifying for more than their small-scale peers.
“So, it’s almost like they’re creating different loopholes to where large operations, they receive far more than the cap would actually suggest,” Caldwell said.
Solar developer's perspective
One of the most consequential elements of the bill in reference to clean energy is the loss of tax credits, prompting some developers to give special care to their projects.
Michael Larkin is development manager at PureSky Energy, a solar developer based in Denver. PureSky has five projects in McLean County ranging from one and a half to five megawatts, with four of those being in Bloomington and one in Gridley.
Larkin said their smallest project in rural Bloomington is currently being constructed and it is the furthest along; it is planned to be energized by November and fully operational by the end of the year. The remaining sites are expected to be operational next summer.
While PureSky is sticking to the original schedule for its solar projects, Larkin said the new law is not making the timeline any easier. They were depending on incentives like the Investment Tax Credit [ITC], which was extended to 2030 under the Inflation Reduction Act. Under the Trump bill, it will be heavily restricted after 2027.
“These projects were under the assumption that the modules, the transformers, the inverters, there would be a 30% tax rebate on the value of all that equipment, back when we were getting these projects submitted,” he said. “Basically, from how we understand it now is these projects need to be built and operating by … 2027.”
ITC, which is a common credit used by developers, was not eliminated but rather heavily restricted. New restrictions of ITC go into effect after Dec. 31, 2027. All renewable energy projects must be in operation by the date, otherwise they are not eligible for the credits.
Larkin said PureSky investigated the possibility of buying materials before the ITC ended to see if they would still be eligible for the rebate, but an executive order by Trump clarified they would not be. Larkin said his company does not take advantage of the rebate, rather they pass the savings onto the people funding construction loans.
PureSky is an independent power producer building, owning and operating the solar farms they develop for community solar projects. A key branch of its development is finding new locations for solar.
“We have a decent portion of the company that’s land origination, like goes out just to sign new contracts with new landowners to develop new projects, and we’ve really slowed that down with sort of the uncertainty of 2027 and beyond here,” Larkin said.
PureSky had a round of layoffs in July almost exclusively in their land origination team as they slow down inspection of new sites, according to Larkin. He said land origination development in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Massachusetts has stopped almost entirely.
Larkin said tax incentives are not the only changes his company is facing. On top of having to change an engineer of records which slowed the projects down already, Trump’s tariffs on solar farm materials are disrupting the project as well.
“We’ve changed the type of inverters that we’re buying, as well as the panels,” Larkin said. “Sometimes we wait a little later in the process to start procuring, but we’re kind of getting it done earlier here to make sure everything is here and there’s no equipment delivery delays that are going to hold up construction.”
Larkin said he does see fewer projects from his company and others moving forward. His assessment was also that the slowdown will probably take a few years to be seen after the pipeline of projects empties out after current ones are built.
“Where all the projects that are currently undergoing study or in the queue have been processed by the utility … and then we get several years in the future here and there weren’t projects in the queue behind applying because they didn’t think it was economically feasible without the tax credit,” he said. "It is a multi-year process, and you got to plan out years in advance.”
While the reconciliation bill had other cuts aside from renewable energy, Larkin said he felt the industry is still “singled out” by the Trump administration. He referenced a memo from Department of the Interior Secretary Doug Burgum as evidence. The memo surrounded a U.S. Fish and Wildlife requirement where developers must consult them to not endanger any animals in the area where they wish to build.
“Now that is just for renewable projects, wind and solar, you have to get the interior secretary’s sign off,” he said. “It’s just another stage gate, another pinch point that could potentially slow down this review and then also it’s not being reviewed by U.S Fish and Wildlife anymore.”
McLean County impact?
Cline said it is not feasible for the county to offer incentives that may make up for federal ones.
“So, I think there’s going to be a kind of renegotiation or a reconsideration by a lot of these developers, but there’s nothing really that we ever provided other than we’ve got a lot of space and willing landowners,” she said. “So, there’s really not going to be a big impact … at least not immediately, locally.”
She said the business side of the projects is not the role of the board. While they do work with developers for new projects, she said they don’t have as much power as it may appear when it comes to the politics of renewable energy.
“I don’t know if we can be a gamechanger in any way in the state other than … being consistent,” she said. “Being consistent with our rules and how we execute them, by being consistent with how we deal with these projects once they come into the county … how good of a partner we are to them.”
McLean County has had renewable energy since 2007, which marked the start of operations for the first wind turbines in the area. Coupled with community support and cooperative landowners, the county has proven to be somewhat of a leader in the sector, according to Cline. An exception might be 2023’s Public Act 102-1123, which standardized all zoning in the state for renewable energy.
“I think we have positioned ourselves the best we could coming up to this legislation. We have a community that seems ready and willing to engage,” she said. “So, yeah, we’re quite lucky to have some very lucrative projects in the county.”
Cline said the new legislation transitioned the county — specifically the land use and transportation committee — into more of an overseer of the projects instead a development partner. Cline said the county simply ensures all proposed projects are adhering to state standards.
“I do try, and I know our land use colleagues try, to be open and honest and available to the developers, to talk to them about how to maintain good relationships with, for instance, the township road supervisors and folks in the county,” Cline said. “So, all we can really do is to be, sort of, good partners as they develop or at least bring their big ideas to fruition in our county.”
Cline said in her experience, developers are most often seeking clarity on zoning and other rules from the county.
Despite the loss of funding and tax credits, Cline does not see a reduction in interest for renewable energy in McLean County, at least initially.
“So, if you’ve got projects in the pipeline, or you’re developing them now, there’s an incentive to do that quickly so you don’t have to follow these new rules. So … in the short term, we might see a bit of a burst,” she said. “After that point, I think we might see a bit of a slowdown … I think it’s going to be about the availability of product.”
While Cline does not argue with the idea of the county being a leader in renewable energy, she does not agree the county is sacrificing large patches of valuable farmland. By her estimation, less than 1% of arable farmland in the county has been dedicated to wind and solar projects.
