There are big warning signs in agriculture right now. And many experts are warning an aid package announced by the Trump administration is not likely to go very far or come soon enough.
Between loss of markets and low prices caused by tariffs and high costs, a lot of farmers are under water this year, despite a bumper crop, if they can even find someone to sell to.
"I'm scared that we're rivaling a scenario like we saw in the 80s for agriculture," said Illinois Agriculture Director Jerry Costello.
Costello said the stress farmers are seeing is enormous. Illinois farmers are averaging a 30 cent per bushel loss on corn, and a $1 a bushel on soybeans this year. That adds up.
“Break even across the state on a bushel of corn is about $4.60 give or take. As we’re talking [Dec. 12] I think corn is somewhere around $4.30-$4.27 give or take. Break even on a bushel of soybeans, if you average in the entire state, is about $11.60 $11.65, I think beans are somewhere around $10.60, right now. We've had a bumper crop this last year. Farmers are doing their part,” said Costello.
Ag economists are estimating U.S. farmer losses on this year's crop at $35 billion to $43 billion. Costello blamed mostly the president's tariff policies.
"It's beyond logic where we are in the trade wars that we're having with so many different countries," said Costello.
Costello said he could have understood strategic limited tariffs as a tool to get to an agreement. But not this.
"It's scary as hell to think about where we're at and how widespread this is," said Costello.
For perspective, Costello said Illinois has around $8.7 billion in agricultural exports per year. 80% of that goes to Canada, Mexico, and China, all places on which the federal administration has imposed tariffs.
"And that's not adding everything in. You can't talk about affordable housing and be in a trade war with Canada which is a huge lumber producer and supplier for the U.S.," said Costello.
It's not just tariffs hitting the ag sector.
"One of the situations everybody's dealing with in agriculture right now is the lack of profitability. We've got the same prices, if you adjust to inflation, as we had in 1974, but our input costs have quadrupled in that same time period," said Illinois Farm Bureau President Philip Nelson.
Nelson said the only input price that has gone down is the cost of diesel fuel.
"You got four seed companies that control about 80% of the seed market. You got four meat packers that control over 80% of the meat packing capacity. And you got about four fertilizer companies that do about 80% of the business worldwide," said Nelson.
Nelson said he's pleased Congress is looking at the lack of functional markets on inputs.
"I think we need to continue to look at that to have better transparency in those markets so that they work and they don't just get set by the big four, you know, take it or leave it," said Nelson.
Both Nelson and Costello agreed interest rates are still high.
Catherine Bertini is a former assistant secretary of agriculture in the Bush-41 administration, an emeritus professor at Syracuse University, and is now a distinguished fellow of Global Food and Agriculture at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Bertini was the first American to be appointed executive director of the United Nations World Food Program.
“It’s hard to find a bank that will want to lend to agricultural interests,” said Bertini during a Council on Foreign Relations briefing.
Bertini said the present crunch is mostly caused by tariff policies. Yet, farmers have always been subject to cycles.
"And then all of a sudden, boom markets got pulled out from under them. So what do they do?" said Bertini.
In the past, sometimes crops were sent abroad. That’s the rationale behind the World Food Program, to deal with surpluses.
"The U.S. administration isn't doing much overseas. That could be an avenue for at least some. But it's obviously not one that it's explored, and not fast enough for those crops not to spoil," said Bertini.
What the U.S. administration has done is propose $12 billion in aid — most of it for corn and soybean farmers. First, there's a question about the timeliness of that. Bertini said the administration has yet to put out details on how farmers apply and get the money. Aid is supposed to be available by the end February 2026.
"That's still quite a delay for guys and women that owe money for various reasons and didn't get to sell their crops," said Bertini.
It may not be a matter of will, but of logistics and paperwork processing, but Illinois Farm Bureau President Philip Nelson said he hopes it doesn't take that long. He said moving that up by even a month would help.
Who will get the money and how much? That’s not entirely certain yet. There will be hoops people have to jump through to get it. The administration is quoted by some media outlets saying the most an individual, person or legal entity could receive will be $155,000. Only producers with an adjusted gross income less than $900,000 will be eligible. That’s similar to limits that apply to many farm programs.
That $900,000 adjusted gross income limit might seem to be a pretty big amount for a farmer, but it’s actually lower than the last bailout, when there was criticism a lot of the money went to really big producers, not to smaller producers, the ones that are most vulnerable.
Costello said that $12 billion in aid is like “putting a Band-Aid on a heart attack.” Nelson simply called it a Band-Aid.
Costello said the projected losses to the ag sector from the tariffs are exponentially higher than the economic pain caused by tariffs against China and Chinese retaliation during President Trump's first term. Yet the aid is less than half the money allotted the first go around. Costello said Illinois soybean sales to China had not even recovered from the first round of tariffs seven years ago.
"And to put things in perspective, in 2016, 62% of US soybeans went to China. Enter 2017, President Trump's first tariff policy in 2018. 18% of US soybeans went to China. Extrapolate that out to 2023. We finally got back to 55% of U.S. soybeans going to China in 2023. Now we know what's happened in 2025, there's a net loss of 7% but it [the partial recovery] was literally over from 2017 to essentially 2024," said Costello.
Bertini pointed out the aid money comes from the Commodity Credit Corporation funded by Congress, which put in $65 billion through the Big Beautiful Bill. That's supposed to last a decade, but this is just the first year, which raises the possibility the fund could run out in future years.
The University of Illinois reported farm bankruptcies ticked up 55% last year in the U.S., ending a four-year downward trend. There were 216 farm bankruptcies filed in 2024. This is still 64% lower than the all-time high of 599 filings in 2019.
"In the first quarter of this last year, there were twice as many bankruptcies as in the whole year last year nationwide," said Costello.
This “appears to mark a turning point in long-term farm financial health,” said the U of I report. The Midwest had a 69% increase in 2024 to 71 filings. There were just four in Illinois.
Costello said you should expect more.
"A couple of years ago, we had some very, very good years in agriculture, but farmers are through their reserves, and I think it's really going to start hitting, unfortunately, right about now and over the next year,” said Costello.
And Catherine Bertini said it’s not just farmers; it’s the whole ag sector that's hurting.
“Both Caterpillar and John Deere, two big American makers of farm equipment, have complained to the administration, or raised to the administration their concerns, because these tariffs and export policies and so forth are impacting them also. And they're also asking for some financial relief from this," said Bertini.
Nelson said more than aid, or credit or anything else, farmers will have to look at their bottom lines.
"And maybe you can tweak it on fertilizer, chemicals, that sort of thing, because those are big inputs. But I think at the end of the day, we hope that some of these markets will start opening up, and it will be reflected in the prices and improve the bottom lines," said Nelson.
Nelson urged people to give President Trump's trade policies a chance but said the administration can't let it go on a couple years.
Costello asks why the administration policies should be expected to work when China hasn't lived up to previous agreements.
"Details of China’s alleged agreement to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans this year have yet to be shared. On Dec. 5, USDA confirmed that only 2.25 million tons of soybeans had been purchased by China to date, and the deadline has been extended to the end of February," said Costello.
Costello equated the farming crisis to arson.
