Illinois food crop producers are in dire need of some precipitation, with rainfall totals significantly behind normal levels and many crop fields crusting over in cracked, checkerboard fashion.
Leaders from the state’s farm commodity groups fear that if crops don’t receive increased precipitation in the next three weeks, drought could severely affect yields and serve to push consumer food prices even higher.
“We’ve got to have some rain right now,” said Richard Guebert Jr., president of the Bloomington-based Illinois Farm Bureau. While attending the 95th Illinois FFA Convention on June 15, Guebert noted that the next three weeks would be “critical” to the development of corn, soybeans, wheat and other human and animal food crops.
“If we don’t get some rain, we’re darn sure not going to have a record corn crop,” said Guebert, alluding to USDA’s initial projection of a record 92 million acre, 15,265 million bushel U.S. corn harvest in 2023. “We’re in dire straits not only in southwestern Illinois where I farm, but all across the state of Illinois.”
Guebert said his soybean plants haven’t grown since emerging several weeks ago. “They’re about three inches tall and crying for rain,” the farm bureau leader reported.
Drought conditions similar across Corn Belt
Illinois Corn Growers Association executive director Rod Weinzierl said weather and crop conditions were pretty much exactly the same in central and northern Illinois as they were on Guebert’s southern Illinois farm as of June 16.
“The vast majority of the state is dry, with much of it abnormally dry. We do have subsoil moisture that we didn’t have in 2012 (the last year a significant drought greatly affected yields), so that’s a little reassuring. But I’m not sure how well plants have been able to root down; later-planted beans look like they’re just kind of sitting there,” said Weinzierl, who has served as ICGA executive director since 1993. “If we get a couple of more weeks of this, things are going to look pretty bad.”
Abigail Peterson, director of agronomy and a certified crop advisor for the Illinois Soybean Association (ISA), said farmers in northern Illinois have received sporadic rainfall in recent days. Whether or not the rain is reaching crop roots still in their developmental stages will determine whether plants continue to thrive or wither, she explained.
“Once you get to Bloomington there has been barely anything” in regards to precipitation, Peterson lamented. “When you have these inconsistent rains with drought conditions already present and the topsoil still dry, it doesn’t alleviate much, unfortunately.”
Conditions in western Illinois are so dry that morning dews have not been accumulating on plant leaves, causing corn leaf “rolling” not usually seen before late July or early August. This is according to Adams County Farm Bureau president Brent Clair, who also has a background in meteorology.
“We’ve usually got dew points in the 60s and we’re looking at dew points in the 40s. That is extremely dry; it’s desert dry,” said Clair.
Weinzierl pointed to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor snapshot, which placed 57 percent of U.S. corn acreage and 51 percent of soybean acreage — including much of the Corn Belt — in drought stage. Conditions were described as worsening in Illinois and Iowa.
Effects of drought felt by consumers
The effects of the drought could soon be felt through prices paid for groceries and other consumer goods, according to Weinzierl. If no widespread, beneficial rainfall occurs soon, those effects could begin to trickle down as soon as late June or early July, he explained.
“USDA is working on their late-June report, and if we don’t get rain I would think USDA will soften those (projected yields for corn and soybeans) numbers,” said Weinzierl, adding that he would also expect further downward revisions in USDA’s July report. A downward revision of expected crop yields would typically serve to drive consumer food prices higher due to farmers and ranchers paying more for the grain and feed fed to their livestock, poultry and other animals.
“Widespread drought will have a tendency to limit supply of our major (animal) feed sources. Less corn and soybeans in the market tends to create some volatility relative to feed prices. I’m also hearing that we’re not getting the hay cutting tonnage we were expecting on the first crop, and as dry as it is there is concern about the second-crop hay cutting,” Weinzierl said.
“This is leading livestock producers to consider selling off some of their breeding stock, which will result in a bigger supply in the near term but will limit beef supplies down the road. It could affect beef prices as well as pork and poultry prices as we go into 2024, but it’s a little early to be talking about a big drought problem,” he added.
An assortment of food products that rely on sweeteners for flavor would also be subject to inflation due to increased demand for corn, as would corn syrup. “If you wonder why soda is so high, one of the (main) ingredients is corn syrup,” said Clair. “It’s not necessarily what we eat directly from the field (that would boost consumer food and product prices).”
“All of our products go into food, fuel and fiber,” Peterson added. “It affects a lot of people.”
Crops could recover with late-June rainfall
Peterson is hopeful that most crop fields can recover from the early-season drought. She’s especially optimistic-- albeit cautiously-- for Illinois’ 2023 soybean crop.
‘It’s still so early in the season to predict the implications for yield reduction,” according to the agronomist, who works out of ISA’s Bloomington office. “We’re hopeful. Parts of the state have irrigation, parts of the state will be getting spotty rain. I wouldn’t say we’ll have a record crop as an agronomist trying to stay politically safe, but I wouldn’t count out (a recovery).”
Clair said the ship may have sailed for corn in regards to achieving USDA’s lofty yield projection. “We’ve already lost our top yield,” he said. “We’re looking at probably 175 bushels per acre of corn in Illinois right now, and that's if all the rains even come for the rest of the year. There’s no way we’re going to be able to match 2022 national or state yields.”
Clair agreed with Peterson that no one should sell short the prospects for a soybean recovery, however. “Beans can go into drought for a few months, and then all of a sudden you get rains in July and August and they just start setting pods and making up for lost time,” said Clair.
Illinois farmers averaged 214 bushels per acre for corn in 2022, according to USDA’s final tally. In addition, Illinois growers harvested an average 64 bushels per acre of soybeans in 2022.
A “very early” estimate of corn yield projections was issued last week by Gregg Ibendahl, Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University, who bases his yearly reports on data gleaned from USDA weekly state crop condition reports. According to Ibendahl, Illinois growers are on pace to harvest an average of 198.5 bushels per acre of corn.
However, Ibendahl adjusts his yield projections during the growing season based on weekly condition reports. Significant changes to projections could be made based on weather conditions, he cautioned.
