Retaliatory tariffs by China could hurt McLean County more than most counties in the U.S. and more than all but one other county in Illinois. Research by the independent nonprofit Brookings Institution showed McLean County is in the top 20% of all potentially impacted counties nationwide.
China's response to the 10% Trump administration tariffs included duties on 80 different manufactured and energy projects the U.S. exports to China. Those include the manufacturing and agriculture sectors.
“While trade skirmishes are frequently discussed in terms of geopolitics and consumer prices, they also entail very tangible local impacts on regional industry clusters, supply chains, and jobs," said Brookings.
All told, the affected industries account for between 400,000 and 700,000 jobs in the United States, said the report.
The Brookings study showed about 9.5% of McLean County employment is in industries China has targeted. In Illinois, only Hamilton County in the southern part of the state had a higher proportion. More than 8,300 McLean County workers are in industries affected by the Chinese tariffs.
“While the median U.S. County has just 0.05% of its jobs in potentially affected industries (and over 80% of all counties have less than 1% of their jobs in affected industries), there are some notable outliers,” wrote Brookings scholars.
Brookings said the trade actions might cause disruptions for U.S. firms, workers, and communities as businesses try to re-work supply chains based on new cost structures.
Although McLean County voted for Kamala Harris in the last election, Brookings said nearly two-thirds of all jobs in affected industries reside in Trump-voting counties.
“So, while Democratic representatives in Illinois may have constituents affected by the manufacturing tariffs, the burden of Chinese retaliation as a whole is more likely to land on places that voted for Trump and his Republican allies in Congress,” said the research.
The potential impact of retaliation from China is not the only factor that bears watching. The most significant potential disruptions to U.S. communities are on pause for now, the suspension of proposed U.S. tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, and accompanying retaliation by those nations.
In comparison, Cook County had just 0.24% of its workforce in affected industries.
