The long-dreaded enrollment cliff for colleges and universities is here. It’s showing up in the student deposit numbers at Illinois State University and other institutions in Illinois.
ISU student deposits are down 8% compared to last year, and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign atypically had to tap into its waitlist, according to Jeff Mavros, ISU's executive director of admissions and recruitment marketing.
As of a couple weeks ago, most institutions in the state were down in student deposits, he said, although the University of Illinois at Chicago reported positive deposit numbers. A spokesperson for Bradley University in Peoria said its first-year student deposits rose 30%. Heartland Community College headcount for the fall is up by 1% and credit hours are up 3%. Numbers for Illinois Wesleyan University were not immediately available.
“In Illinois, there will be 3-4% fewer students graduating from high school than last year,” said ISU Provost Ani Yazedjian in an email to the campus community this week.
Starting with the Great Recession in 2008-09, the U.S. birth rate dropped sharply. It has not recovered. The first cohort of kids conceived in that time is now graduating from high school and preparing for higher education. An estimated 145,000 young adults will graduate from Illinois high schools this year. By 2041, the projected number will be less than 100,000, according to Mavros.
An encouraging context
The decline in deposits at ISU stands out not only because it is larger than the overall drop in high school graduates but also because last year ISU recorded its second largest entering class.
“Historically, this is still a pretty large class. We're over 4,100 enrollment deposits right now. Six years ago, we would have done cartwheels for that,” said Mavros.
Applications were down about 6% early in the year but the university had made inroads on the gap through the spring.
“We were holding pretty close to a year ago. And really the interesting part was we got down to that last week leading up to the May 1 decision deadline, and things just slowed,” said Mavros.
ISU is still trying to determine exactly why that happened. Mavros said some peer institutions were especially aggressive this year in discounting tuition and awarding merit scholarships.
“One example … was a student who was eligible for academic scholarship from us, and it was a pretty modest scholarship. It was in the range of $1,000 or $1,500 a year, and it's renewable. This other institution was awarding that same student $7,000, and in the past this school probably was awarding $3,500 to that same student,” said Mavros.
If a lot of students were waiting on scholarship decisions, it can help explain the late shift in numbers, said Mavros. The U of I decision to dip into its waitlist may also have lured some students who would otherwise have chosen ISU.
Transfers
ISU is making up part of the difference in deposits. Student transfers are up 20%.
“About half of the delta [change] with freshmen are being made up with new transfers right now. That's a really good thing for us,” said Mavros.
Mavros described an “all hands on deck” effort over the summer to confirm commitments from those who have made deposits. The Preview orientation program, for instance, now separates advising from the in-person experience.
“That's accelerating the timeline, and if anything, bringing students a little bit closer to us,” said Mavros.
Mavros said a few hundred more students have already registered for classes than at this time last year.
Retention
Increased retention efforts have also netted some students. Mavros said retention rates remain just under 82%. The goal articulated by President Aondover Tarhule is 85%.
“The retention side of things is strong and showing gains, which is absolutely what we want. And it's easier, frankly, to keep a student here than to go recruit a new student to Illinois State,” said Mavros.
The Enrollment Management and Academic Services units are in a yearlong process examining students at risk of leaving for academic, financial, and other reasons, and putting new programs in place.
“Trying to be proactive in their outreach to students, helping students take those steps if there's something outstanding that's got a block on their account for registration, really trying to kind of help students through the process," Mavros said.
Mavros said it is now easier for freshmen to change a major even within the fall semester.
“Students who are in their major of choice tend to stick around longer and persist, and so that's a change,” said Mavros.
Tarhule said late last year that not being able to get a desired major is among the top three reasons student don’t stay at ISU.
ISU has also made the dean’s list more forgiving. Formerly it applied solely to the top 10% of students. Now it applies the metrics that ISU uses to make high honors determinations at graduation: magna cum laude and summa cum laude, said Mavros. To students, that small gesture of positive reinforcement, that pat on the back, he said, may mean more than you’d think.
“It's one of those things that can really change a student's mindset around their own self-confidence, their own self-worth and, ultimately, their ability to succeed at Illinois State,” said Mavros.
Discount rates and affordability
Financial difficulties present more of a barrier to student retention than academic challenges. Yet Mavros questioned whether the larger scholarship awards and steeper tuition discounts by some peer institutions are sustainable.
“I don't think that they can keep that up for long,” said Mavros.
He said ISU will also need to look at whether its practices need adjustment for pockets of potential students in which they underperformed this year.
And a significant increase in available student scholarship dollars is a key priority for a comprehensive fundraising campaign in the future.
“There's no such thing as too much in that bucket. Making the institution affordable and accessible to students is a huge component, an increasingly important component, not just for strict affordability … but also just the enticement to attend an institution when it's a very competitive landscape. Buyers are choosy, and they have options,” said Mavros.
Other adjustments
Some four-year institutions are taking a page from the playbook of community colleges and offering micro certificates in addition to regular major programs. You might get a degree in one field and have a certificate in data analytics, for instance. Mavros said that idea is entering the dialogue at ISU as well, particularly for alternate student types as the traditional residential first-time college student population ebbs.
“Yeah, micro credentialing, but also things like online program delivery and adult learners. You know, they're supposed to be close to 2 million students in Illinois with some college, no degree. Those students, you know, how do we cater to them? How do we become an option that's feasible?” said Mavros.
Even as the enrollment trough deepens, Mavros said ISU retains some core strengths. It may still be able to rely on, to some extent, referrals from a large fervent alumni population, traditionally strong programs like nursing and teacher education, and new offerings in fields that are in demand such as engineering.
“I think there's still a path to success for us, but we'll have to be nimble,” said Mavros.
