Retirements and hiring freezes early this year raised concerns about the future of weather forecasting. Now, next year's budget proposal for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] amplifies those worries with cuts to several key programs and projects.
The proposed budget released earlier this month "eliminates all funding for climate, weather, and ocean laboratories and cooperative institutes." It also does not fund regional climate data and information, and climate competitive research, just to name a few of the cuts.
Reductions
- The National Severe Storms Laboratory
- Sustained Ocean Observations and Monitoring
- Tornado Severe Storm Research / Phased Array Radar
- Science and Technology Integration Decrease
- Polar Weather Satellites
- National Centers for Environmental Information
- Product Development, Readiness and Application
Endings
- NOAA Community Project Funding/NOAA Special Projects
- NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science
- Federal Support for National Estuarine Research Reserve System
- Habitat Conservation and Restoration
- Office of Oceanic Research (OAR) Climate Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes
- OAR Weather Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes
Of the programs it keeps, the plan shuffles some into new agency homes. The U.S. Weather Research Program and Tornado Severe Storm Research, and Phased Array Radar, for example, go from NOAA to the National Weather Service.
Forecasters say they're worried about these things. WMBD TV Chief Meteorologist Chris Yates said the personnel reductions so far have not had a big impact. For the most part, Yates said the forecasting models are still performing well.
"We have lost some observation data out west, mainly some weather balloon data. So far, I haven't seen a huge reduction in skill as a result of that, but that is a concern for many of us in the industry," said Yates.
Yates said weather balloons that are not launched out west do have relevance for Central Illinois.
"There are a few sites, particularly near the Rockies, that are crucial for kind of painting a picture when areas of low pressure re-emerge on the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains. Not having that could eventually lead to some problems. Weather balloons give us our most complete picture of the entire atmosphere, from the surface all the way up through the through the beginning parts of the stratosphere," said Yates.
Yates said there are ways to compensate for loss of weather balloon data with satellite scans. But Yates and WEEK Chief Meteorologist Chuck Collins both said if you don't have good and plentiful data going into the forecasting models, what comes out will not be as robust and detailed as you might wish.
The wave of retirements and then a hiring freeze earlier this year has also had a human cost.
"The weather service was understaffed to begin with, and now positions aren't being filled. There are meteorologists and, you know, multiday severe weather events, they're working double shifts, you know, several days a week. And so, it's an overall big, big problem," said Collins.
It's more than just the weather event itself. Collins said it's the aftermath. He said chances are those same people would have to go out after the storms and survey damage for days.
“There's a lot of tired meteorologists out there," said Collins.
Collins said you can compensate some by having staff based at locations that are not having severe weather sub in remotely, but lack of staff drags down the overall resiliency of the service. For instance, the radar technician is gone at the NWS in Lincoln, said University of Illinois climate scientist Jeff Frame. If the radar goes down, someone has to drive from Indianapolis or Chicago to get it back up, Frame said.
That's what has happened so far. What's coming could be very different.
What these projects and products do
Frame studies severe thunderstorms, things like supercells. Frame said the new budget for NOAA abolishes a lot of stuff. Even where there are reductions but not eliminations, he said the document can be deceptive. Case in point: The National Severe Storms Laboratory is one of the research labs of NOAA. That's cut entirely.
One of the products the lab is developing is called the Warn-On Forecast System. That's a computer system which uses an ensemble of computer forecasts along with current weather data. Frame said the National Weather Service uses Warn-On to bridge the gap between a watch and a warning.
“Say, well, we got a storm coming. Maybe it's two hours away. Is it going to strengthen? Is it going to weaken? What are we going to do? Warn-On Forecast is a real key to that," said Frame.
The budget proposal said some of the severe storms and tornado research is supposed to go to the National Weather Service. Frame said the budget request actually said Warn-On will be discontinued and re-evaluated later.
"Well, that's great. That means that everyone who's working on that system now and who built it is going to go away, and then you're going to try to restart it with all those people gone, and that doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me," said Frame.
The National Severe Storms Lab also does social science research on tornadoes and severe storms. For instance, the recent Texas flooding had excellent warnings. The weather service did its job. But Frame said if the warnings aren't acted on or misinterpreted it doesn't help anyone. He said the lab does valuable research on that kind of gap.
The new NOAA budget allocation for maintenance is growing, not falling. But WEEK's Chuck Collins said there are additions to current technology that should increase but may not.
"Wind farms actually can interfere with the radar, and they have so many wind farms, especially in Logan and McLean counties, there's talk the weather service here locally may need another radar somewhere, maybe in Eastern Illinois, to cover some of the overlap, because we're getting some interference," said Collins.
Here's another example of the value of tech investment and of research. Fifteen years ago, the National Severe Storms Lab upgraded all the Doppler radars in the country to what's called dual polarization, meaning the beam doesn't just alternate horizontally, but it alternates vertically as well.
Frame said that allowed meteorologists to say something about the shape of what's scattering the radar beam in the atmosphere.
"We're able to actually sense tornado debris now with our radars. TV weathercasters as well can show this product on air saying, 'Here's debris. Now, get in your basement. Don't stand out on the porch looking for it,'" said Frame.
Another example: Frame said only in the last five years have forecasters gotten a handle on rapid intensification of hurricanes and forecasting of storm surge, which allows better calibrated safety warnings in affected areas.
And Frame said next-generation radar is at risk. Doppler radar technology is about 40 years old.
"What they do is they're able to scan storms much, much faster, whereas the current radars ... the beam goes around in a circle, and then it goes up to the next elevation, goes around in a circle in the whole process of scanning a storm. If the radar works, at fastest and hardest it still could take something like five minutes. Five minutes is kind of an eternity in terms of a tornado," said Frame.
In comparison the average lifespan of a tornado is less than 10 minutes. Frame said researchers are developing what's called phased-array radar to succeed it. The new budget puts funding for implementation in doubt.
Economic impact
A special report of the American Meteorological Society noted weather information and the protection it provides life and property supports the nation's economy.
“For decades, the United States has led the world in supplying weather information that provides for the protection of life and property and supports all segments of the nation’s economy. This success springs from the carefully constructed balance among the government, private, nongovernmental organization [NGO], and academic sectors working in weather — known collectively as the weather enterprise. Each sector depends critically on the work of the others so that together they efficiently and effectively serve the nation," said the study.
The meteorological society said the value of weather and climate information to the U.S. economy is more than $100 billion a year — 10 times the investment from taxpayers.
In 1999 Hurricane Floyd came from Bahamas and moved parallel to the east coast of Florida. It eventually made landfall in North Carolina. That storm, at the time, prompted the evacuation of the barrier islands on the entire east coast of Florida. At the time, this was the largest peacetime evacuation in U.S. history, and that hurricane never hit Florida. Hurricane Dorian in 2019 took a very similar path. They didn't evacuate. The U of I's Jeff Frame said they were fine, because forecasts had become more accurate. He said improving such a forecast can in one event save millions in the economy.
"People are evacuating, so they're taking off work. They're not making money. They're not paying taxes on that money, right? So, it's not just the businesses and the people, but it's also the local governments that take a hit. Tourists aren't there. They're not paying sales tax," said Frame.
Ending research, Frame said, gives up the potential for future refinements that could make that kind of difference.
The Meteorological Society report said about a third of the U.S. economy is sensitive to weather and climate.
And meteorologists Chuck Collins and Chris Yates said they too are concerned about possible issues with updates when trying to improve model accuracy down the road.
